Scorchstack Issue #32: No One Can Tell You What To Do. Except Me
Make sure you don't pass over this issue, and also a topical Easter pun.
There are only two reasons to keep up with the Calgary Flames at this point. One is the chance to hear a beautiful Harnarayan Singh goal call, and the other is so that when all your friends are talking about Scorchstack, you can nod at them and say Subscribe to Scorchstack.
Subscribe to Scorchstack.
What’s inside?
Christian talks about tanking. For teens! That’s right, we’re some kind of teen tankie rag now, and Konnie didn’t even write for us this week.
Vincent Van Floob? Floobo Picasso? Flooba Kahlo? Pick your favourite, and enjoy a Masterclass in making art with them.
Nathan watched Zack Snyder’s Justice League and it dawned on them how we’re witnessing an origin story unfold in front of our very eyes.
We gave half the Scorchies the week off because it’s Spring Break, baby!
Since last week
It appears the Flames once again lost a lot of games, but they also won one. Is that enough to make the playoffs? You’ll have to read this week to find out.
There was another dynamite Big Monday Thing, which should really be called Huge Monday Thing with how much great content it gives you. We won’t sell out though, not even for a single Canadian Brewhouse gift card. [floob here. Yes we will]
Ramz keeps giving you extremely good content with Burn the Tape, this time reviewing episode one of the Mighty Ducks reboot. You don’t even need to watch the sequels to understand it, if there even were sequels? It’s unclear.
Darryl Sutter proved himself a liar and pulled the goalie this week. But if you read last week’s issue, you already knew that all men do is lie.
Your Guide To Tanking
We're dusting off that old 2013 playbook
by Christian (@decayinwtheboys)
The projected playoff cutoff for the North Division is 65 points. Let’s do some simple math here:
The Flames need to get 30 points to hit that mark. They have 19 games left in their season. To get there, they would need to go 15-4 down the stretch, a 0.789 points percentage. They are currently a 0.472 points percentage team.
Their closest rival, the Montreal Canadiens, needs 26 points to hit that mark. They have 24 games left. All they need to do is go 13-11, or a 0.541 points percentage rate. They are currently a .609 team.
So if Montreal plays below-standard hockey and the Flames suddenly become the best team in the league (Vegas is currently at 0.742 to put it in perspective), they might just sneak in to face a Leafs team that the Flames are currently 2-3-1 against, and they got pretty lucky to get those two wins. I’m going to make a crazy prediction and say that the Flames won’t be the guys to pull that off.
They’re currently on a 2-6 run where they’ve struggled to both score and prevent goals, and it doesn’t seem like they’re going to put it together just in the nick of time. There aren’t reinforcements coming, as they’re pretty much capped out. Even if they could make a big trade work, they’d be burning the farm to salvage the small bit of honour you get from not missing the playoffs in the league where half the teams make the playoffs. Even if the team has a large improvement over these last few games with their current roster, they might be a .600 points percentage team. They literally need to be the best. If there was a high point this season, the Flames still weren’t the best then.
Miracles have happened before, and unlikely runs where every bounce goes your way for 19 straight games are within the realm of possibility in this crazy sport. In addition to being bad, the Flames have been unlucky, and cashing that karmic cheque can paper over some of the larger flaws of the team and vault them into that coveted fourth spot. The St. Louis Blues were in last place and eventually won the cup, so never say never.
But the odds still aren’t in the Flames’ favour. You can remain optimistic and hope that a miracle happens, but with this cursed team? You’re better off hoping for the worst. Let’s get in that tank and race to the bottom. Here’s your guide to that.
What are the benefits?
Not giving a shit. You don’t have care anymore, you’re free. A win is a nice little treat and a loss is palatable because it ups the lottery odds a bit: both outcomes are a good outcome. You do not have to worry about the beat reporters tweeting out lines at 10 a.m., because who cares who’s playing in the top six anymore? Let them have their fun. You can even just tune out and watch something else, no one’s going to blame you. Check out The Sopranos if you haven’t already.
You might get to see the kids play. People have been clamoring for Matthew Phillips, Glenn Gawdin, Adam Ruzicka, whathaveyou. A team that’s focused on the playoffs is always going to be too risk-averse to ever play someone with zero NHL experience, no matter how badly they’re tearing up the AHL and how rotten their fringe players stink. A team that’s playing out the stretch has to keep the fans invested. If they’re going to sell at the deadline (they absolutely should), they’ll have holes they need to fill and talent they need to assess.
That sweet lottery pick. Our old friend the lottery pick is back. We haven’t seen you since 2016 (technically 2018). You get to be hyped about the new kid, and he might just be here sooner than anyone drafted in the 15-31 range. How fun is that?
A gigantic glass of cold water to the face of management. Remember the Flames puking all over themselves to end the 2017-18 season? That resulted in a coach getting fired, a big buyout, a trade for the Flames best all-around forward and somehow their second-best defenceman, and a team built around the idea that just maybe they shouldn’t waste this opportunity. Right now, they’ve got a nauseous look on their face and their cheeks are starting to puff up. Asking why the same front office is in this spot just three years later is a question for another time, but hopefully, they’ll realize (again) that they can’t plug top six holes with $700,000 castoffs. Maybe they’ll also realize those multi-million dollar players aren’t actually worth what their contract says they’re worth and actually try to make some major improvements.
What are the downsides?
It’s not actually all that fun. If you’re tuning in to watch your team lose, you’re kind of a sicko. And we can’t even have that because the Senators already claimed it, and most of them only arrived at that point after three straight years of being awful. Your lizard brain won’t let you cheer for the bad thing to happen if you were hoping up until two weeks ago for the good thing to happen.
Players absolutely hate it. You have seen these guys smashing their sticks and honing their thousand-yard stares on the bench? They do not enjoy this one bit even if it means they might be a better team in the future.
You might be on team tank, but they will never be. They’re guys with a 10-15 year window to accomplish the one thing they ever wanted and a lot of them are watching their fifth or sixth year get flushed down the toilet. That’s no fun! We already take for granted how much of our entertainment and lack of hobbies comes at the expense of their physical and mental health, but to cheer for them to lose in a year like this? They’ve agreed to be caged animals living in hotels just because it would give their fans (who they can’t interact with) a slight bit of happiness, and now that’s blowing up in their faces. God, that sucks to think about. If that’s not going to get better, some players might start looking for greener pastures. They don’t have forever.You’ve wasted a year of a playoff window and set back overall progress. If your goal is to make the playoffs and your offseason moves reflect that, then you should try to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Flames are here instead. Again, that comes with the chance to get much better, but the rest of your roster ages a year and comes a year closer to their contracts expiring. The Flames are in a pivotal year next season with Johnny Gaudreau and Mark Giordano on their final deals with the club. If you’re going backwards with the clock ticking on your current window, you have less time to make up for it in whatever time is remaining.
Specific to this season, we do not have a clear picture of the draft. Rankings are everywhere. There’s no consensus #1 pick, and that’s going to get worse the further you go back. Junior leagues are chaotic messes due to opt-outs, schedule pauses and restarts, and shortened schedules. How can you tell if a guy is over/underperforming in a small sample when the entire season is a small sample? The OHL is one of the NHL’s top talent pools and they’re not even playing this season. All drafting is a crapshoot, but this is probably the crapshootiest year of all.
Can the Flames pull this off all the way to the bottom?
The one thing we’ll have to accept is that this can only be a light tank, relatively speaking.
The Flames are bad, but they’re among the worst at truly being bad. The Sabres have lost 18 in a row, and there are still a few feet of crap between them and the Flames. Getting the good lottery odds involves having to fall below Vancouver, San Jose, New Jersey, Ottawa, Detroit, Anaheim, and the aforementioned Sabres. Columbus, Los Angeles, Nashville, and Dallas are also in the mix. Most of these teams are, on paper, less talented than the Flames and also have more appealing assets to sell at the deadline. When April 12th comes and passes, those teams will be more barebones and thus more likely to lose than the Flames will. Seattle is also guaranteed a top-six pick, so they’re literally unable to be out-tanked. That’s your competition.
(The Flames could also theoretically do that, but the flat cap makes moving money out a pretty tough ask.)
First or second overall will likely come down to the lottery luck over anything the Flames can do on the ice, so you’re really only looking at anywhere from 6-10 in the pick range. Unless the Flames really commit to tearing it all down at the deadline (they won’t), they’re probably not bottoming out as hard as their competition is.
What are the rewards?
To stink all year long and not get a top-three pick is a kick in the pants, but with the chaos and uncertainty of this draft, you might still get a great player just because other teams don’t really know what they’re doing either.
So who are some players to keep an eye on that might be available in the 6-10 range? We’re not at the draft preview yet, but we’ll run through some quick names for you:
Dylan Guenther: Right wing who is currently ripping up the WHL to the tune of two points per game after a point per game rookie season. Fits an immediate need and the Flames love WHLers.
Fabian Lysell: Swedish winger who’s already playing in the pros. Loves scoring goals and has always been successful despite being in leagues way out of his age range, but hasn’t had a convincing top-level debut this year.
Kent Johnson: Centre who played for the dominant Michigan Wolverines this season, strong two-way guy with a bit of speed and a bit of skill. Less exciting, but a pretty safe pick.
Aatu Raty: Very skilled Finnish centre who took a bit of a tumble in the pros this year, but has a great track record until this past season.
William Eklund: Another winger, and an older player in the draft (Oct 2002 birthday), but has been producing in the SHL with 11 goals and 23 points in 40 games. Outperforming players who were drafted last year.
Those are some promising names and they’ll probably make great Flames players someday! You’re going to have a lot of time between now and July, so might as well start getting acquainted with a few of these players and imagine the scenarios that could lead them to be Calgary Flames.
We’ll cross the draft bridge when we get there, but from quite a distance away, it looks like the Flames could add a pretty talented forward in a few months.
Is this really worth it?
In broad strokes, yes. The Flames aren’t going to make the playoffs, and if you can’t make the playoffs, the best way to go is down. The NHL rewards failure, so might as well take advantage of that and snag yourself a potential lifeline. In that sense, yes, it’s worth it because it’s the only smart move you can do.
But the answer is always more complicated than that. First, there’s the general uncertainty of any draft: you do not fully know how good these players are going to be. The best ever tank job by the Flames landed them Sam Bennett, who anyone would’ve taken at fourth overall and he somehow keeps falling below expectations even as the bar gets lowered. The grim reality of this is that you could do all this losing and wind up not that far from where you started in the first place.
Just ask the Buffalo Sabres, who have failed year after year after year and somehow have only gotten worse even with all those participation awards they won. They’re well on their way to another first overall pick, just three years after previously drafting third overall, and six and seven years removed from two second overall picks. Now their franchise cornerstone wants out after all that losing, leaving them with no other option but to keep losing in perpetuity.
You’d be quick to point out that the Sabres aren’t a permanent doormat franchise because of all the draft talent (though it is true that a few of their picks aren’t living up to the hype), but the general mismanagement around them. That’s right, there’s another factor in this: your management team has to know what they’re doing. There are 22 other spots to fill on the roster.
Remember earlier in this article when I said that asking why the Flames are here again is a question for another time? That time is now.
We’re not going to get too much into exactly what moves have failed the Flames, but it’s clear that management hasn’t entirely figured out how to build a team out of a few pretty promising parts. They’ve still never found a right wing, they can’t get consistent depth scoring, they’re addicted to adding low-value veterans, they misidentify needs, they seem blind to the flaws of their current players, etcetera. They’ve had seven years to figure this out and they still aren’t any closer.
A nice draft pick doesn’t solve those failures as much as it prevents management from making a future mistake, and even that’s not entirely true. Whoever the Flames wind up drafting could indeed fill an immediate need and make them a better team. They still can’t fix everything and turn it all around, that’s management’s job and those results speak for themselves.
So to get back to the original question: is it really worth it to bottom out and get another great player when management hasn’t done a convincing job of building around their previous draft prizes? Will this be the missing piece that they’ve been unable to find to make the roster whole or another way to distract fans from previous failures?
I guess the real question is: will all this losing actually put the Flames on the right track, or are we tricking ourselves into a few more mediocre years? I don’t know if you can answer that right now, or if it’s even in the scope of this piece to answer it, but it’s part of the inherent risk of accepting that your team stinks. Sometimes, they’ll keep stinking.
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Tutorial: How To Draw Matthew Tkachuk
Painting is poetry that is seen rather than felt, and I need you to see this poetry real fucking bad
by Floob (@itlooksreal)
Over the past few days, I’ve seen the work of a young artist named Micha Noelle pop up all across twitter, based on her portraits of some of hockey’s current brightest stars, with our perfect beautiful angel Matthew Tkachuk at the center of that work:
Check Micha’s twitter feed for more of her work, it’s really good!
One of the things that’s most well known about me is my own keen eye and sharp intuition for art. Many across the art community (correctly) portray me as a virtuoso, something of a visionary without equal. These are just things my peers say, and while I’m too humble and gracious to accept the volume of praise that is heaped upon me, sometimes when there’s smoke, there’s fire, and my friends, there is a lot of smoke.
Being as gifted as I am can be a burden, to have a talent such as mine is difficult, because the world is an ugly place sometimes, and my gift is to splash some beauty on it from time to time. But I feel a responsibility to pass on what I know to others, so they too can inspire and spread joy the way that I do. While I know that no one out there can ever replicate the skills that I possess, I can certainly share the tools and hope someone out there has what it takes to come close.
So that’s what I’m going to do today, and Micha, I hope that you’re watching, because even though I think you did a pretty good job, I think you and everyone will agree that my methods produce superior results. Again, I’m just trying to help.
Given that we started this with a portrait of Matthew Tkachuk, it feels prudent to me to use him as our subject again. He is a handsome man, and his face on its own radiates a boyish anguish that can be captured and expressed by a great artist. So let’s get to it!
I did a google image search for Tkachuk, and after some browsing, this is the picture I selected to do a portrait of:
As you can see, the portrait is already fraught with emotion, and it does provide us with clear examples of perspective and the human form. Perfect.
I should note that I don’t have a pencil or paper with which to do this on, and I am instead opting to use my stylus and my Acer R13 Touchscreen Chromebook, and a fresh drawing on Google Canvas. Some say this is an impersonal medium with which to create, and without the ability to do proper shading limits the detail and the intricacies we get with a good pencil. I think you’ll find we will disprove that theory in this tutorial.
First things first, we of course just want to lock down the frame of young Matthew’s face, paying particular attention to the angles of his jaw.
You probably won’t produce the same effect I did here, but don’t feel too bad, I’ve been doing this for a really long time.
Next, we’re going to sketch the rest of Tkachuk’s frame, add an ear to his face, and start to sketch in some details on his face, notably the fade in his haircut and the stubble on his face. Now this requires a lot of attention to detail, and you might need to reference the source image a few times to really lock this down, but with a bit of precision, the effect comes into view in short order:
This is already really starting to look like Matthew Tkachuk.
Next, we are going to start fleshing out the features on Matthew’s face. Obviously, he’s going to need some eyes, so we’ll rough the shape and location of those in right now, as well as outlining the bridge of his nose, his mouth shape, and what will be the trickiest, his hair and eyebrows.
Once you’ve done the outline of his hair, being very precise, you can add some wisps and guiding lines that indicate his hair is curly. This might take some time to master. It didn’t for me, but you might need to keep practicing. Finish this off by tracing the little dimple in Tkachuk’s chin, and then let’s take a look at where you’re at from there.
At this stage, I looked back at my reference photo and realized that Matthew Tkachuk doesn’t have the world’s pointiest chin, nor does he have a goiter coming out the left side of his face. That’s my bad. We’ll clean that up next, and then move to the heart of the image.
Alright, we’re at the most important and toughest stage of this tutorial, so you’re really going to want to pay attention here. Take a break if you need to, because we need you at your most focused, as next we’re going to capture Matthew Tkachuk’s eyes. Tkachuk has some very expressive eyes, and some fairly prominent lashes, these are the features on his face that command all the attention when you look at him, so they really need to be done justice in a black and white portrait that takes away a lot of that detail.
Basically what you want to do is really nail down the shape of his iris and get to work making really pronounced lashes.
Nailed it.
As you can see, I also took the time - using the same technique as before - to apply more of Tkachuk’s facial hair, and added a little more detail to his eyebrows.
We’re almost there! You’re doing great! Obviously not as great as me, but don’t feel bad about that. All that’s left to do now is to fill out the rest of his frame, a little bit tougher than it looks, as our picture doesn’t give any particular indicators it’s a Calgary Flames jersey, so you’ll have to pay attention to the finer details of it so the discerning eyes out there can make that conclusion for themselves. At this point, I will also add some facial lines for some added detail, and if you want to have fun with it, you can add some more curls to his hair. This is art, no one can tell you what to do. Except me.
Look at that. Breathtaking. You have successfully drawn the shit out of Matthew Tkachuk. All that is left to do is sign your name to it and reference it with your original photo.
Congratulations! You’ve reached the end of the tutorial! You’re now a celebrated artist. In our next tutorial, I will show you how to convert your original artwork into an NFT.
Oh God We’re Witnessing An Origin Story
I'm calling Zack Snyder right now and telling him to fuck right off
by Nathan (@hanoten)
As I’m sure many of you also have, I decided to watch Zack Snyder’s Justice League recently because at this point in the pandemic new content is new content and after watching the Flames the last few weeks, I felt prepared for whatever it would be. (It was okay, but I enjoyed DC films like Shazam! and Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn much more)
However, after watching it on Monday and then watching Monday night’s game against the Jets, a horrifying conclusion dawned on me.
There’s a story here of a young man who was a star with the local youth team (your Calgary Hitmen) who seemed poised (WHL East First All-Star team) for a promising, nice career (drafted 69th overall) who is constantly failing to live up to the expectations set by his family (younger brother is better in every way imaginable). After suffering a potentially life-threatening injury, he’s still here somehow, and it makes you wonder what’s going on inside of him.
Michael Stone is replacing Victor Stone and becoming Cyborg.
Finally, the reason that he keeps being brought back makes sense. The Flames have been funneling resources into Stone away from the neglectful eyes of the public to keep his uhhhhhhh veteran leadership and whatever else he brings in a body that can still compete.
Why did they choose Mike Stone and not Jaromir Jagr? Okay well first off if you’re asking questions like that you’re not paying attention to what the Flames have done this past decade. And second, his name isn’t Jaromir STONE gosh figure it out.
Mike Stone, known for his booming shot and high hockey IQ makes perfect sense to transform into a founding member of the Justice League.
This would also explain why the Flames so petulantly threw a temper tantrum and refused to pay for their new arena. They didn’t have the money, they were building their own arena elsewhere. Some kind of S.T.A.R. Labs type of arena, I bet.
And when funding was looking grim last year, they slashed wages of employees and issued temporary layoffs so that they could complete Stone’s upgrades in time for a new era. I mean come on, why else would they have treated the workers of their company so poorly during a pandemic? The owners are billionaires because they are geniuses, not because they’re immoral and don’t value labour. They’re making Mike Stone play forever, they clearly value labour in some capacity.
Now it’s time to address the elephant in the room and address that Mike Stone is white whereas Victor Stone is the only Black founding member of the Justice League. I don’t like this either, but this is the NHL. They probably already have the “Cybernetic Enhancements Are For Everyone” campaign ready to go. I know we’re talking about turning Mike Stone into Cyborg here, but I need you to suspend your disbelief just a little bit when it comes to the NHL and racial equality.
Do I like any of this? No, not at all. Do I think that this version of Mike Stone Cyborg will be rebooted in four years into a version that is insufferably long and not worth the hype?
Can’t wait to find out!
Anyway, what we’re witnessing here is an origin story, one that I am deeply saddened knowing we’ll end up seeing rebooted every seven years or so. Mike Stone truly is here forever, and there is nothing we can do to be rid of him. But hey, at least maybe his next player card will be valuable enough to the right nerds?
Up Next Week
The Flames maybe play the Canucks tonight, if that pesky COVID-19 doesn’t get in the way! And then Edmonton and Toronto twice because the North Division is a monotonous hellscape.
The Flames take advantage of the reduced quarantine times for trades, or maybe they don’t? This one really could go either way.
We review Darryl Sutter’s new f̶a̶i̶t̶h̶ farm-based curriculum, including a big band that is every Sutter brother grunting.