ScorchStack issue #8- After dark edition
It's the after dark edition because it's dark outside. There's no second meaning to that phrase, right
Two ScorchStacks? For the price of one ScorchStack? How could you not!
What’s inside?
A quick reaction to the Calgary Flames and their day two draft picks.
A lot of RFAs were set free today - should the Flames be interested?
That’s all you get.
Since this morning
There was ScorchStack issue eight part one, where we talked about Connor Zary a lot. That issue is canon, so if you want to understand this issue, you have to read that one.
Mark Jankowski is headed to whoever is looking to cash in two years, making us not look like fools by publishing his eulogy this morning
The NHL draft is still ongoing. We are in the middle of the third round. Just kidding, but that took way too long, right folks?
Rapid reactions to the Flames’ day two draft haul
The draft may have taken all damn day, but reading this sure won’t
By Christian (@decayinwtheboys)
The NHL draft is mercifully over. Heading into the second day with two extra picks, the Flames looked to build on depth and came away with a contender for the steal of the draft and a few other interesting pieces. Not much else to say except here’s our reaction to all of what happened.
(If you’re looking for something about Connor Zary, we covered him in the morning edition of the ScorchStack. We are right about him being good, and also correct about the NHL draft taking too damn long.)
50th overall: Yan Kuznetsov - D, University of Connecticut. 34 GP, 2G-9A-11P
Doesn’t do it for me, personally. Scouting reports say that he’s a kid who is well regarded as a defensive defenceman, which is great, and he appears to have found some sort of offensive game in college. They mentioned that he was the youngest player in the NCAA last season - one of the rare 2002 born players - ad nauseum on the broadcast, so there’s still a lot of growth left for this already well-rounded player. Kuznetsov scoring six fewer points than Oilers first round pick Dylan Holloway (who is a centre) is just gravy.
But I feel they could have done better given what was available. I see why they went after an LHD despite the position not being a need: Connor Mackey (age 24), Colton Poolman (24), and Oliver Kylintgon (23) have little room left to make it in the NHL. It’s nice to have some insurance, but there were some more interesting prospects available I would have liked better. Kuznetsov tops out as a second pairing defender, which is fine, but I felt that they could’ve targeted someone else in the second round.
72nd overall: Jeremie Poirier - D, Saint John Sea Dogs. 64 GP, 20G-33A-53P
This was the kid everyone was excited about in the Flames-verse today. Projected to go in the first round or early second, Poirier slipped due to admitted defensive issues. Not great if you’re a defenceman, but you have to love the value if he can tighten up his game.
While I don’t think they needed to address the LHD position, the Flames couldn’t pass up Poirier, and fair enough. His offensive strength and general ability with the puck on his stick are undoubtedly first round quality. If he can work out a lot of those defensive errors with two junior years and an AHL season, it’s found money.
80th overall: Jake Boltman - D, Fargo Stars/Edina HS. 17GP, 2G-7A-9P (USHL), 24GP, 4G-9A-13P (Minnesota HS)
I’ve never known how to analyze high school players properly. USHS leagues can get pretty fuzzy with the talent disparity within and their distance from the NHL, so I don’t really know what to say about Boltmann’s HS numbers other than I suppose they are all right. His USHL numbers also look pretty good, small sample size notwithstanding.
With that in mind, and an opportunity to play for the hockey factory University of Minnesota, I feel that there’s some upside hiding in the numbers. He’s certainly a long-term project, but if he can get a good freshman year (whenever that might start up) under his belt, I think we could count this among the number of solid picks the Flames made in this draft.
And we must also congratulate the Flames for drafting a right-handed defenceman. I was beginning to fear they were allergic to the idea.
96th overall: Daniil Chechelev - G, Russkie Vityazi Chekhov (MHL)/HK Ryazan (VHL). 49 GP .922SV%
I personally would not have selected the overaged Russian goalie in the fourth round that no one expected to be drafted, especially with Zion Nybeck still on the board. His stats will fool you; .922SV% is North America good, but Russian average. He was tied for 25th in save percentage out of the 58 MHL goalies who played at least 20 games last season. Not great. He’s started this season better with a .953 SV% in six MHL games and posting a shutout in his VHL debut, but of course we have to warn about small samples. He’s in the final year of his KHL contract, so perhaps the Flames wanted to stake a claim on him and offer him a spot in North America before he signed another contract and they lost the opportunity for a few years.
Truthfully, I wasn’t sold. Maybe he really is a hidden gem and he explodes into a potential NHL backup (NHL starter is reserved for Dustin Wolf and Dustin Wolf only), but it really looks like he’s a low-level guy that won’t make much of an impact.
Then I saw his Instagram posts and I changed my mind.
This kid rules and I want him to succeed no matter what.
143rd overall: Ryan Francis - C/RW, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles. 61 GP, 24G-48A-72P
Finally, a Francis worth associating with the Flames.
He’s small at 5’9”, but he’s put together a pretty impressive campaign. With Cape Breton’s top two scorers graduating, Francis will be in control of the club’s offence (he has two points in two QMJHL games so far this season), but he is also losing his linemates (sniper Egor Sokolov and overager Shawn Boudrias). It’s a tough ask for a prospect, but it will really show what he’s made of.
If he can put together an impressive D+1 season, the Flames will finally have a RW prospect worth a shit. Ideally, the Flames eventually draft a RW that has a more solid resume, but I think Francis could be something if the rest of his Q career goes well.
174th overall: Rory Kerins - C, Sault St. Marie Greyhounds. 64 GP, 30G-29A-59P
Kerins’ stats don’t jump out at you at first glance, but Sportsnet pointed out that among 30 goal scorers in the OHL, Kerins has the highest total of 5v5 goals (26). I’ll admit that I did not have enough time to do some deep dives, but that is encouraging.
Generally described as a hard-working, high-IQ guy (both overused, but still), Kerins got the shit end of the stick by being on a lousy Soo team. He had a constant rotation of wingers and had to play in all situations. He doesn’t appear dominant or game-changing yet, but he put up some strong numbers given the circumstances and could really be a surprise depending on how much he matures next season. For a sixth rounder, there’s not much more you can ask for.
205th overall: Ilya Solovyov - D, Saginaw Spirit. 53 GP, 7GP-33A-40P
A very weird pick, but it’s in the seventh so who really cares. Solovyov is a 20 year old who was mostly anonymous until he came to the OHL last season and put together a pretty strong season for someone who’s never played on North American ice. I think the Flames were very interested in him before COVID hit, which might prove beneficial because he’s playing in the much tougher KHL than the AHL (like Chechelev, his contract is only for this season). He’s a longshot anyways, but if he can put up decent numbers in the K to back up his OHL campaign, I’ll be very intrigued.
Overall:
I’d have to say that I always had someone else in mind whenever it was the Flames’ turn at the virtual podium.
Nabbing Zary and Poirier is enough for me to overlook the weirder selections. The Flames came away with great value from those two, which is honestly more than I expected them to come away with in this draft. Finding Francis and Kerins late seems like two good bets on underrated players. Two days ago, you could easily figure that the Flames would walk away with one good player and a handful of maybes. Now they have two great value picks and a few more that have some sort of intrigue around them.
RFA castaways the Flames may consider
One team’s Junkowski is another team’s treasure
By Nathan (@Hanoten)
Here we are, at the end of the second day of the NHL Draft. It’s honestly a miracle that anyone is still awake after the slog that was today. Maybe it’s because the news that so many notable restricted free agents weren’t qualified was the real jolt of energy folks needed to wake up. The only other option is people have wisened up and stopped caring and had nice, normal days.
I have not and did not, but the RFAs are worth talking about.
Notable is a kindness to some of the names on this list, but there are definitely a lot more players than you would expect to see in a normal year without a pandemic looming over everything and also a flat cap. If this had happened last year, would Sam Bennett’s name be on the list? Tough to say.
Obviously, the most notable name is Mark Jankowski, who was eulogized by us earlier this morning. May he rest in peace. He will not join Andrew Mangiapane, Glenn Gawdin, Oliver Kylington, and Tyler Parsons as pieces for the organization who are a) actually good b) young enough to still be something and/or c) not worth letting go for free.
However, perhaps there are some other names on the list of worthwhile now-unrestricted free agents that the Calgary Flames might have some interest in signing for next season. Here are some that it could be neat to see wearing the Flaming C next season, listed in alphabetical order.
Also, there’s always the chance that these players go the Paul Byron route of not getting qualified, but still being re-signed by their previous team at a cheaper price. Anything can happen this year. Do not get your heart attached too much to them.
Anthony Duclair - Ottawa Senators - 66 GP, 23 G, 17 A
Can you recall the last time a player was at the NHL All-Star game and then not qualified for the next season? I cannot, and I also don’t care enough to Google it. I’m willing to bet it may have never happened before.
Duclair has bounced around from team to team in the five years (New York Rangers, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa) and will likely be getting a new stamp on his passport soon. He faltered down the stretch with only two goals in the latter half of the season, but he’s still a 25-year-old asset who can play in the middle six.
Considering Calgary’s current RW depth (Elias Lindholm, off-wing Mangiapane, off-wing Dillon Dube…Matthew Phillips?) signing Duclair could be a big win for them, if it’s cheap.
Dominik Kahun - Buffalo Sabres/Pittsburgh Penguins - 56 GP, 12 G, 19 A
Kahun will be the first of a recurring trend on this list of RFAs who were cut by teams they were traded to late in the season and have no attachment to. There is no sunk cost fallacy with these players, even though there is definitely some value still to be had by them.
Only playing six games with Buffalo, Kahun has been a bit of a bouncing commodity playing for Chicago and Pittsburgh as well since the start of the 2018-19 season. He is a bit of a late-bloomer, coming over from the DEL when he was 23. However, he’s been a useful middle six option, and has consistently hit at least ten goals in his last five seasons split between Germany and North America.
He brought incredible value on his entry-level contract, and now is in line for a moderate raise. Kahun could be the next German to provide the Flames with some bargain bin value as a leftie playing right wing. There’s a fit.
Evan Rodrigues - Pittsburgh Penguins/Buffalo Sabres - 45 GP, 6 G, 4 A
First, it’s worth addressing that Toronto is the team that didn’t qualify him, trading for Rodrigues after the playoffs. Second, you’ll notice that the teams Rodrigues played for last season mirror Kahun’s. That’s because they were traded for each other! And now they are both on this list. Ahhhhh, serendipity, or whatever this is.
Rodrigues is older than Kahun, not as flashy as Kahun, and probably not as good as Kahun. He is however one year removed from a fairly decent season as a complete two-way player, and would provide the Flames a cheap 4C option if they didn’t want to rush up Gawdin.
Of all the players on this list, my guess is that Rodrigues will be the cheapest. That has some value in and of itself.
Troy Stetcher - Vancouver Canucks - 69 GP, 5 G, 12 A
The only defender on this list, Stetcher presents a pretty worthwhile option for the Flames to nab as a bottom pairing right-handed defender. Appreciated by Vancouver as much as Brett Kulak was by Calgary, Stetcher will be the first of many cap casualties for the Canucks this offseason.
He’s a solid 5v5 option who provided about two standing points above replacement according to Evolving-Hockey last season. He used to get decent special teams minutes, but that has seemingly dwindled in past seasons with the bigger name players patrolling the blue line for the Canucks. Some of them were better, like Hughes. Some of them weren’t, like Myers.
He would be a steady option alongside one of the Flames younger defenders on the left side, like Juuso Valimaki or Oliver Kylington or Noah Hanifin’s replacement. With the dearth of right-shooting defenders out there right now, it would be fun to pluck this Canuck and watch him succeed.
Carter Verhaeghe - Tampa Bay Lightning - 52 GP, 9 G, 4 A
Instead of watching the Flames overpay for a veteran with Stanley Cup experience to bring to the room, why not underpay for someone cast off by the winning Stanley Cup Champions looking to prove they are still an NHLer? Verhaeghe has that rings that locker rooms so desperately crave, and probably doesn’t have the ego or the attitude like other disappointing free agents from recent years.
I honestly don’t even care about his stats, his rookie season was fine enough. Yes, it isn’t phenomenal that his rookie season was at 25. Whatever. If Brad Treliving needs to make a dumb play for locker room growth, I’d rather take a cheap flyer on Verhaeghe than this year’s Brouwer/Neal/whoever.
Lucas Wallmark - Florida Panthers/Carolina Hurricanes - 67 GP, 12 G, 13 A
Lucas Wallmark was a very good bottom six option for Carolina for a few years, and then got traded to Florida as part of the Vincent Trocheck trade. He sucked in Florida. There’s no way around it. It’s not a surprise that Florida didn’t qualify him.
If we ignore that stretch of seven regular season games (and two play-in games) then Wallmark returns to being the ideal candidate to replace Jankowski as the 4C. He can score, he’s defensively sound, he can likely be attained for close to league minimum, he wins the majority of his faceoffs (overrated, but still helpful).
None of the players on this list are going to secretly turn into bonafide stars in the league, and so pursuing them with that expectation is only going to lead to more disappointment. That’s okay. Teams need to have good, cheap quality depth. That is often found in the castoffs from other teams if you don’t get it in the draft. The Flames don’t have any strong contenders to graduate as useful depth pieces next season in their prospect pipeline. Signing a guy like Wallmark, who can be as useful as Derek Ryan only cheaper, relieves that burden and doesn’t handicap the rest of the options.
Finally, one last note. I didn’t include Andreas Athanasiou or Vinnie Hinostroza because while they are tempting, I don’t think they’ll fit the vibe of finding cheap depth that these options provide. They’re likely going to have someone take a bit of an expensive flier on them, and good for them for getting their labour valued and getting paid.
Also, don’t suggest Nick Cousins. He isn’t a good person.