ScorchStack Issue #75 - Sources tell Scorchstack “hell-fucking-yes”
When you win 10 in a row, you're allowed to say curse words. Look it up, it's in the CBA.
The winning streak made us all excited to actually talk about hockey for once, and yet we still found a way to mention a hockey player’s butt. We know what the people want.
What’s inside?
The Flames have won 10 in a row, and shockingly that isn’t the only thing we can think about. Instead, you great treated to all of Mike’s Thoughts in yet another edition of Mike Thoughts.
Speaking of the winning streak, Nathan is ready to
hurtlove again, convinced this truly is a sign that the team is actually good.Did you know other teams are not winning? And they want the Calgary Flames to fix their woes? Tibs is here with a very simple yet timeless message: no.
Since last issue
At the end of ScorchStack Issue #74 (which was a banger tbh) we ended by saying “Up Next Week: The Calgary Flames lose a game. Just kidding, no they don’t” which means that once again, ScorchStack had it first.
Floob published a Big Monday Thing which wasn’t immediately rendered moot by a big trade, so even though it’s Wednesday, it’s still worth the read.
Daniel Vladař finally got to start a game and won it, so of course that was the only time we saw him play.
Nothing will stop Elias Lindholm ever again.
Mike Thoughts
Folks, he just can’t stop thinking ‘em
By Mike(@mikeFAIL)
My brain always has thoughts and these are the things I’ve been thinking about lately. As usual: Elliotte, these are my thoughts and not 32 of yours. Acknowledge me.
Also, every single stat referenced here is via Evolving-Hockey.com and was pulled last night. Support the Twins.
Your Calgary Flames simply refuse to lose games
I don’t know if you know this, but this is big: the Calgary Flames have won 10 straight games. I know, I know, I know. I was pretty confident we’d see a lot of 2-1 games, but the Flames have been shockingly capable in scoring goals and winning hockey games.
Over the last ten games, which are wins and I feel like I need to emphasize this a lot, the Flames have a 57.75% xGF% at 5v5 (score and venue adjusted). Is this good? Sources tell Scorchstack “hell-fucking-yes”.
Why is this good? It’s a two-fold answer, with the first being the Flames as a team are continuing to maintain control of shot quality and game control (over the aggregate) over their opponents.
If we’re looking at streaks historically since 2007-08, the Flames’ streak from xGF% perspective would rank seventh among teams with a winning streak of ten or more games. If we look at purely from a CF%, as the Twins in the linked tweet have the data sorted, the Flames’ current streak would rank second only to the Sharks’ streak of 07-08.
Additionally, this current winning streak easily topples the ten-game streak under Glen Gulutzan during 2016-17. The only difference: the Flames controlled a greater GF% ratio than where they’re at currently (71.07%) to the Gulutzan-era streak’s 76.8%.
The second answer to the xGF% question I posed is that the Flames are the league’s second-best team in terms of xGF%, CF%, and FF%. They’re the league’s best team in terms of GF% and SF% during this run. So again: not showing any significant signs of weakness at 5v5.
Can they get better? Finishing more would certainly help
Since the start of the run they’re on, they’ve jumped to 8th at 10.25%. Are they truly a 10%± shooting team? Based on the larger sample and what we know historically involving many skaters, probably not. Does that take away at all from what they’re doing over this stretch of time? Fuck no, it rules.
Keep in mind they’re doing this with a power play which has produced five goals to their 5.81 expected-goals for. This within adding parameters like per/60 measurements (their GF/60 is 22nd), as well as considering they’ve played just 49:37 on the power play (third-most out of all 32 teams), is the one sore spot potentially hindering them from destroying teams even more than they are.
So if the Flames hope to extend their winning streak to 11, or 12, or even 13 games they will need to get more out of the recently-adjusted power play units. Adding Tyler Toffoli to the first unit helps immensely and we saw evidence of that versus Winnipeg, but more is needed from both units.
Sean Monahan being moved into Mikael Backlund’s role on the second unit can give them an added offensive punch during the waning seconds of the man-advantage, but collectively there needs to be a pursuit of quick puck movement to dismantle penalty kill schemes leaving avenues to create high-value chances.
Speaking of special teams…
The Flames’ penalty kill hasn’t hindered them at all. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Dillon Dubé’s shorthanded goal versus Columbus was the team’s first since January 2nd versus Chicago. Stylistically and systemically, the Flames have been pressing back into their power kill approach during this run at times. The pursuit of creating competitive advantages, leveraging the eclectic mix of skills has been valuable at various intervals this season; even if the Flames strayed from their high-risk, high-reward kill schema for a period of time.
During this winning streak, the Flames have surrendered the 5th-best shots-against per 60 at 4v5 (40.97). Of the three teams better than them, the Blues and Kings have six games each; and the Hurricanes have ten games played since the streak began.
The Flames’ xGA/60 (4.94) is 3rd-best again with only the Blues and Hurricanes ahead of them.
The Flames’ CA/60 over this period is 4th-best (76.47), again highlighting that even while shorthanded the PK is not surrendering much in terms of shot-attempts against.
All of this special teams talk is to say that besides the concerns of the power play not producing more than it has, the Flames have been nearly-flawless. We haven’t even discussed goaltending and that alone continues to be one of the most impressive aspects of this 2021-22 roster. When was the last time you could look at this team’s goaltending — not just the starter, but the backup — and accept that they’re in a good place?
Tyler Toffoli or Blake Coleman?
At some point, the Flames should probably consider breaking up Blake Coleman from the second line and trying Tyler Toffoli there. While the second-line is still effective and it bears shades of the fabled 3M Line of seasons’ past, there is a necessity to add additional finishing talent there. Toffoli playing in that spot over Coleman might legitimately be the necessary adjustment required to prolong the offensive output of Andrew Mangiapane as well as allow Backlund to transition more into a puck distributor.
The existing second-line is leading the league at 5v5 with a minimum of 200 minutes together in xGF% (65.77%), but is 25th out of 32 lines with 2.46 GF/60. They’re 29th in on-ice SH% with 6.1% too. Make the change, Darryl.
I’m not going to make any promises, but if they swap Coleman for Toffoli and they go on a scoring bender, you can thank me. Better yet: give the Scorchies and I $5 each.
Jacob Markström rules, but how much does he rule?
Jacob Markström, Vezina Candidate? Yes. At the time of writing this, he’s second in GSAA (goals-saved above average, which is a good metric) and fifth in GSAx (goals-saved above expected). Should he win the Vezina this year? Fuck no. Give that award to Igor Shesterkin, who has taken over Henrik Lundqvist’s throne as being a New York Rangers goalie constantly being lambasted with vulcanized rubber.
This isn’t to say Markström is undeserving — in any other year or reality where Shesterkin doesn’t exist he would win this year (probably), but this will be a simple case of “great, if not elite, but not named Igor.”
Local broadcasters hate this one simple trick to get better
Can broadcasts and local media during intermissions stop using combined plus-minus as a metric? Stop trying to make poor measures of performance a thing. Better yet, stop using plus-minus as a metric for Selke candidates.
Elias Lindholm deserves Selke recognition, much like Mikael Backlund, but this is Patrice Bergeron’s award. Anyone named Eric Francis going on-air and saying otherwise is a fraud.
When was the last time the Flames had two Selke-caliber centres on their roster? There are a lot of unanswered questions I have today.
Mark Giordano Returns: Vengeance I Seek.
Mark Giordano sucker-punched Backlund at the end of the game the other night. In other news, I’ve taken up boxing and will be seeking revenge for what Giordano did.
The post-game interview with Matthew Tkachuk after the game gave about as many answers as we wanted, but ample subtext. Is there bad blood there? I don’t know — frankly, I don’t really care. I know everyone was in a blood frenzy after how it unfolded, but I think if anything it was evident in showing Tkachuk’s growth as a leader on this team.
If there wasn’t a perpetual fear of him leaving at the end of his RFA years in Calgary that continues to feel manufactured by Andy Strickland, I’d sew the ‘C’ on his jersey that night.
Did anyone notice potential-future Calgary Flame and fellow Swede Calle Jarnkrok checking on Backlund? He’s very close with Mickis, Markstrom, and is Lindholm’s cousin. Make of that what you will.
At the next Kraken-Flames game, I hope Backlund destroys Giordano with a highlight-reel goal. Give me this moment because the look Backlund shot his way at the end of the scrum screams “I’m going to get your ass.”
Never forget: Hockey is pure nepotism.
So the Flames apparently hired Bob Murray as pro-scout in California and Eric Stephens of the Athletic reported on it.
TL;DR here: he resigned mere days after an internal investigation put him on administrative leave for improper conduct to staff and players. He is or at the very least entered an alcohol abuse program to help with this issue.
Sutter and Murray go back to their playing days in Chicago; Sutter was hired as an advisor in 2019, he then left to coach the Flames when Geoff Ward was fired.
Does he deserve a second chance? I don’t know. Hockey is rampant with nepotism and hiring a career hockey man who resigned a few months ago and giving them a second chance is almost exclusively something we see in professional sports on the regular. Does that make it right? Whose to say.
My only immediate feelings are: I hope Murray has sought forgiveness from those he harmed with his actions and is actually improving his life with the right support structures. Otherwise, he’s a 67-year-old former general manager who lives in California and scouts teams in California for the Flames. He isn’t going to suddenly be a decision-maker and impact the Flames’ front office.
And finally…
When Jake Muzzin was sent to the shadow realm after colliding with Chris Wideman; Leafs fans immediately took to CapFriendly’s Armchair GM, proposing random deals; and along with Twitter discussing ways to maximize LTIR. There has never been a more perfect encapsulation of what the NHL is in that moment.
More and more people keep stealing my bits from Twitter. Oh we’re at the end of the line so back to cyberbullying full-time.
Last thought: does anyone else find it weird that it’s February and Easter candy is available? I bought family-sized bag of mini-eggs and described them as a “Mike sized bag” which means my ass is about to be as thick as Sidney Crosby’s any day now.
I have a big butt but scrawny legs. I’m what is described as “slim, thick with a cute ass” per Fetty Wap.
For the first time in franchise history, the Flames have both won 10 straight and are good, simultaneously
It is time to finally answer the "Are the Flames good?" question with a period rather than another question mark
by Nathan (@hanoten)
Since entering the 21st century, there have been few times in the regular season to be a Flames fan that is as good as right now. In recent memory, it is likely the 2018-2019 season when the Flames were actually good, and the 2014-2015 Flames when they were definitely awful, but got every single bounce just as Bob Hartley drew it up.
They are unquestionably the hottest team in the league, which means every article that is talking about them has to include a “no pun intended.” Intend the pun, they’ve won 10 straight, live a little.
There are certainly going to be a contingent among Flames fan who would caution against getting hopes over this recent run, because it has been proven time and again that the Flames love nothing more than to be their own worst enemies, and getting lulled into a false sense of security by this team is a fool’s errand. Yes, the quality of competition in this run has been softer more often than not, but you can only play the teams you’re scheduled. And yet, it wasn’t even five years ago that the Flames also rattled off 10 straight wins, somehow achieving this feat under Glen Gulutzan, who since died and went to what we presume is hell (assistant coach for the Oilers). Like it’s easy to do.
That season ended disastrously, and even during the streak it was more a sense of “When will this end” rather than “Wow what a nice and enjoyable hockey team that I enjoy rooting for”.
But I am here to tell you that there is much more optimism surrounding this team, and maybe it’s time to let yourself love again. By all accounts, this is a team that is built better than 2017, performing better, and not even juicing the numbers as strongly.
2022’s team is scoring more, getting scored on less, controlling play to a much better extent, but aren’t riding the same kind of PDO boost that the 2017 team did. This should theoretically (and also proven in theory) show that this team is built for a lot more success, which is the praise that the Sutter System has displayed all season long. Mike, who is much smarter than me, has thankfully broken this down further in this issue from a quantitative standpoint, so let’s examine this from a qualitative one.
It’s not just the play on ice, it’s the composition of the team. Only five players remain from the 2017 team (Monahan, Gaudreau, Backlund, Tkachuk, and perpetual presence Mike Stone), and for all of the valid noise about the misses and missteps that Brad Treliving has had in that time, he’s certainly built a stronger team, mostly by having his draft picks develop properly. When your drafted supporting roster is built around Mangiapane, Andersson, Kylington with fresher faces like Dubé and Ružička, it gives a sense of confidence that Bennett, Bouma, and Brodie (not his fault, he was good) gives.
We finally are seeing what is happening when one (1) free agent signing isn’t an immediate bust and when one (1) in-season trade is good. Blake Goalman isn’t lighting it up the way he would likely want to be, but he’s fit in beautifully on the second line and is not a liability a la Troy Brouwer. Nikita Zadorov and Erik Gudbranson are a clear upgrade over Matt Bartkowski and Deryk Engelland, which was a real pairing during a 10-game win streak (!?) that also featured Michael Stone on the second pair.
Hell, perhaps the clearest difference is that the big trade during this win streak was Tyler Toffoli, and in 2017 it was Curtis Lazar.
Also, while Brian Elliott was never the problem in Calgary, it is undeniable that Markström and Vladař are more of a sure thing than Elliott and Chad Johnson.
When the 2017 team went on their run, they used it to barely squeak into the postseason and get swept by the Anaheim Ducks. Even in 2019, when the team won the Western Conference, it was all for naught with the crushing upset by the Colorado Avalanche. Will the Flames win every game here on out? Probably, but even if they don’t, it’s time to take this team seriously as one that is decidedly good after a decade of perpetual mediocrity with no end in sight.
I realize it is shortsighted to go all-in on a team that has yet to play 50 games, but there has been an extremely notable deficit of joy in the world lately, so you’ll excuse me for getting rosy-eyed over something good that seems like it isn’t built on a house of cards. It is time to believe in this team, and that there is long-term hope for a franchise that seems to be allergic to it. Here’s to the next 10!
Blake Coleman tweet of the week
by Blake Coleman (@BColes25)
A pre-emptive warning to Leafs fans: no you cannot have Dustin Wolf
Scorchstack is getting in front of the discourse yet again
by tibs (@decayinwtheboys)
It’s nearly impossible to imagine the Flames being where they are without the contributions of Andrew Mangiapane. Homegrown 25-year-olds scoring at a 40-goal pace while also having some of the best shot metric impacts in the league don’t come around often. Even when the absurd goalscoring comes back down to Earth, he’ll still be a very useful and much loved member of your Calgary Flames.
But what if he was a Maple Leaf instead?
And what can you say about Rasmus Andersson folks? While Oliver Kylington has stolen the spotlight as the breakout defenceman of the year, Andersson’s quiet bounce-back season has given the team the luxury of having two first pairing calibre units. Even if his goal-scoring ineptitude has reached some hilarious highs this year, he’s still such an influence on ice that we can laugh off the missed opportunities that would have us pulling our hair out in years prior.
But what if he was a Maple Leaf instead? And the Flames had perennial superstar leech Kasperi Kapanen?
If you aren’t paying attention to the Toronto Maple Leafs, they’re currently in a slump. Goaltender Jack Campbell, who was definitely always a starter and not a 30-year-old who was impressive beyond expectation in short bursts, is getting American Sniped to death. Since the calendar turned over to 2022, he has put up a disappointing .894 sv% in 13 games. Even though eight of those have been wins, Leafs fans absolutely know that won’t last. Come playoff time, he will still be letting in backbreaking softies, a delicious side to Marner’s ceremonial puck over glass penalties and Matthews shooting 0.32%.
Other options include Petr Mrázek, also 30 and shitty. Michael Hutchinson is somehow still with the Leafs, I feel they’ve had him around since 2008. The next in line for the throne is Joseph Woll, a career .888 AHL goaltender in his third season who wasn’t horrible in four NHL games.
A strange wind is blowing. It may feel like an ordinary breeze, but don’t ignore the ominous feeling it gives you. If you listen closely, you may hear “it can’t cost much to get Dustin Wolf out of Calgary, he’s kind of expendable with Jacob Markström being the starter for the next four seasons.”
If you’re a Flames fan with a twitter account (or a sicko on HFBoards, you know who you are), you know this pain well. It’s a migraine caused by reading the bad posts of people who know nothing about your team but do know how to sort by CF% on naturalstattrick dot com. They take the relative silence surrounding a good but underrated prospect as a sign that they are a genius for knowing they exist. They believe they’re sly when they try convincing you that the obvious garbage players and low-value AHLers are actually fair value and that you actually don’t want this prospect you’re excited for. It’s the “everyone wants to play for the Leafs” hubris, but on a slightly more personal scale because they’ve at least bothered to learn who your AHL affiliate is.
Thankfully, reality is different. NHL GMs will always overvalue NHL experience over actual talent when looking for new players, and they’ll also always overvalue the magic beans potential of young players. No one wants to be the guy who paid big for a bust, and no one wants to be the guy who traded away a superstar.
Unfortunately, reality has never stopped the discourse machine. Leafs fans need a new goalie. This will be very annoying to Flames fans. It’s time to bring back a classic Scorchstack tradition: gatekeeping. We need to nip this in the bud(s all day), we’re taking the offensive for once.
Now we could go down the traditional Ramz style of gatekeeping and tell you that Dustin Wolf sucks actually, and you don’t want him on your team. We could say that he’s a short goalie and he will be reaching for pucks in the top corner like a child reaches for the cookie jar. We could point out that his name is Dustin and who in their right mind would entrust their franchise to Dustin, and we could also point out that his last name is Wolf which means that he’s actually a loner and will divide the dressing room. We could even point out that he was born in California, where it is too hot to learn how to play hockey properly.
But we don’t even need to go to that effort. Dustin Wolf is ours, and you can’t have him. That’s it, end of story. My Dustin Wolf. I’m unpredictable and unhinged, you wouldn’t want to see me without my Dustin Wolf.
Up Next Week
Pat Steinberg tells the listeners of Sportsnet 960 that Scorchstack Radio is coming.
Once more, with feeling: The Calgary Flames lose a game. Just kidding, no they don’t