ScorchStack Issue #69 - I can’t explain it but he has Armie Hammer energy
Do not comment on the number
You’d be surprised at how many people seriously think that a Juno-nominated Canadian country music duo from North Dumfries, Ontario consisting of Stuart and Jenna Walker suddenly logged on Twitter dot com to have serious and farcical musings about the state of both the Calgary Flames and the National Hockey League as a whole, but hey…
It looks real!
What’s inside?
Draft picks? No thanks, I’d rather Win Games.
Having sex? At MY hockey game? It’s more likely than you think!
We create a new hockey analytics term: xGV. We’re coming for your jobs Josh and Luke.
Since last issue
ScorchStack Issue #68 was an unparalleled success, even if it did get snubbed at the Golden Globes last weekend. Did you know the Globes were last weekend? What was that all about?
Floob has his most comprehensive, well-researched BMT of his illustrious career. He even had a GIF, so you know this one meant a lot to him.
The Flames played twice and they lost twice, and tomorrow they have to face the powerhouse Ottawa Senators. Buckle up.
Draft picks don’t matter as much as you think they do
They keep making a mess on the rug, something had to be done
by Konnie (@konnie49)
As the trade deadline gets closer, Flames fans have become antsier after three straight losses against the best teams in the NHL. As a result, they have set their sights on the trade deadline stating that, due to this recent stretch, this team needs significant help on the trade market. However, it seems not everyone truly agrees as to what the Flames should be willing to give up in a deal, with some saying that it is not worth spending draft picks on a rental.
The common defence of this type of thinking is “Well, you could trade away a pick that the team will go on to pick a really good prospect! Our team would need a guy like that!”
When you look at that argument and think about it, it starts to fall apart. First off, you are not trading the player a team is going to select, you are just trading away the right to do so. For example, if the Flames are trading away their first-rounder, there is no guarantee that the player the other team takes would be exactly the one that the Flames would have picked. The idea of trading the 4th overall pick is a lot more enticing than trading away Sam Bennett.
Not only that, to get anything out of a draft pick, a team needs to be able to properly develop that player for it to be worth anything. Recently, a lot has been made about how teams are able to sell every single player that has any smidge of value off for draft picks and are willing to take on dead contracts for even more picks. While yes, it’s true having as many draft picks as possible is better than not, the fact is that it’s only the first step of getting real value out of them. Not only must a team make the right decision at the time of making the draft, but they also have to make the right decisions in their development path. Since these are human beings that teams are working with, it’s not an exact science as to what the proper path for developing each player is. Acquiring the draft pick is only one step in a long process of getting value out of a drafted player.
Which brings us back to a rental. As a team acquiring a rental, you know exactly what you are getting out of a player based on their career track record. With draft picks, it is a bunch of unknowns that might not get the chance to contribute to your team years down the road. With a rental, you are getting contributions immediately. In most cases, rental contributions will outweigh what you would receive with just draft picks. The Penguins got more out of the 13 regular season and 15 playoff games that Jarome Iginla played the Flames did out of the first-round pick that they acquired for him.
To wrap this up, yes it is worth spending a 1st rounder on a guy like Tomáš Hertl or John Klingberg. Yes, even with those additions, it’s not even clear as to say that they would be a team that could legitimately make a run to the Stanley Cup, but they are certainly not the team that could without it. This might be the last year we see a lot of Flames players we love, so it would be in the best interests of all of us to see them get some reinforcement as they try to get some playoff success. As long the first isn’t traded for Ben Chiarot in which it will invalidate this whole article.
Goal vibes
We’re calling it xGV from now on
by Nathan (@hanoten)
A disturbing trend has emerged from the @NHLFlames account on Twitter which has proved disastrous for the team’s on-ice performance. Yes, it is usually a fool’s errand to assume that anything done on Twitter dot com would have any effect on the real hockey games, but the evidence is overwhelming with how bad it’s been.
Every time they tweet out anything about goal vibes, it’s a guaranteed loss.
This correlation was first discovered by Scorchie Tibs, who picked it up pretty early as the Flames have only ever tweeted about goal vibes this season, and only started in November. What at first was a topical way for fan engagement through a presumably ‘stressful’ time (Flames tied or trailing) has now become a harbinger of doom.
It can’t be that bad…..right?
Wrong. The Flames have so far tweeted out ‘goal vibes’ a total of 14 times through nine games, and it hasn’t worked out once. You may think, hey, at least they picked up that point right? Unfortuantely, that game was November 16th’s 2-1 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, and the tweets only came with five minutes left in the third already tied, and again at the start of OT. The collective vibes have been for naught. In fact, in all situations after they’ve tweeted goal vibes, it would seem to invite an onslaught of goals against. As we only believed in the most advanced of stats here at Scorchstack, here is a breakdown of Goal Vibes/60.
Flames tweet goal vibes: nine games, five goals scored, 15 goals allowed, 0-8-1 record. The best was against Vegas on Dec. 5 where they tweeted it out twice (start of the third and with minutes to go) and they scored two goals in that period while also conceding two to lose 3-2. The worst was against debatably their first time against San Jose on Nov. 9, where they tweeted it out twice in a tie game and then let in two goals. Letting in three goals while also scoring one against Tampa Bay on Jan. 6 is also a contender here.
Also, one of those games was the Boston game which then opened the floodgates to a massive stoppage for Calgary. Obviously, there’s no way they’re linked, but bad luck breeds bad luck it would seem.
Now, you might be saying, well that’s not fair, they clearly only ask for goal vibes in games they aren’t already winning, so you’re cherry-picking the data here. First off, there was nothing stopping them from tweeting this in games where they’re already up by three. Juicing the goal differential would rule, and they could forcefully change the narrative by doing it on a guaranteed win (or really prove how disastrous it is by crumbling with minutes to go).
Second, for the most part, they were all winnable games. The majority of those tweets are sent either tied or down a goal. It’s only the Florida and Carolina games where it’s been a multi-goal deficit, which at that point you’re just dooming the phrase. Even games where they sent out multiple tweets, the conditions were all the same.
So what should the Flames tweet instead?
That’s a whole other article, and obviously, the Flames can tweet what they want. But please, I beg you, stop tweeting goal vibes. Maybe instead, something like this would be more fun.
Celebrities most likely to fuck at a hockey game
We’re bringing you the investigations
I had this crazy idea, it just sort of came to me! I was thinking about which celebrities would be the ones to most likely have sex at a hockey game. I know, I know. It’s a wild idea! By the way, this article was written at 5 pm MT on January 11th, 2021.
Kodak Black
Just a super random rapper who I feel like would probably do this! And at a super random game too like the Florida Panthers or something!
Ed note: Holy shi t
Pete Davidson
Pretty self-explanatory.
Jack Harlow
Look me in my eyes and tell me you can’t see him doing it. And it WILL be at a Flames game.
Matthew Tkachuk
I know he’s not a celebrity but if he was one instead of a hockey player I think he would do it if there were any women willing to risk their lives to have sex with Matthew Tkachuk.
Nick Cannon
An absolute menace.
Miley Cyrus
She’s gonna break her dad’s achy breaky heart.
Timothée Chalamet
I’ve never even seen anything he’s been in but I get the vibe from him. I can’t explain it but he has Armie Hammer energy. Like he’s not a cannibal but he’ll definitely fuck at a hockey game.
Cardi B
I don’t think she’s necessarily setting her sights out on “Wow I’d love to fuck at a hockey game” like Kodak Black definitely did, but what I think would happen is she won’t even know or realize she’s at a hockey game.
Lil Nas X
You Can Play WISHES they can do what Lil Nas X can. Until they have two dudes fucking at a hockey game, they won’t grow the game.
Doja Cat
Don’t need an explanation for this one.
Up Next Week
After playing one hockey game this week, they’ll play two next week. It’s all about baby steps.
We looked it up because we know you didn’t - the NHL All-Star Game rosters get announced. On the one hand: who cares. But on the other hand: Oliver Kylington.
The arena deal gets its morbidity and mortality conference in city hall this week, so be on alert for some truly awful takes.