Scorchstack #82 - Hello Readers. It's Baseball Time II
We still haven't figured out the magic numbers thing from last week. For the love of god someone help us.
Everyone loves MarinerStack and everyone loves Scorchstack. Here is the sequel to the groundbreaking and award-winning piece of journalism that has everyone raving. Oh, and Johnny Gaudreau might have set a new career-high? Colour us surprised!
What’s inside?
Ramz details of the shockingly deep friendship between Darryl Sutter and the Scowling Flames Lady.
MarinerStack returns and the topic of the day is juicing. No, we’re not talking about a cleanse or making juice for your toddler using organic fruits & vegetables. We’re talking steroids.
Is it time to worry about Andrew Mangiapane? Nathan thinks so.
Is there a conspiracy to limit Andrew Mangiapane’s effectiveness?
Mike has thoughts about the Edmonton media and since he lives there, he wants to share his thoughts.
Since last issue
We said Johnny Gaudreau would hit 100-points in ScorchStack #81. As always: Scorchstack had it first.
Mike said Blake Coleman would score a hat trick. He did not.
The Big Monday Thing told us that you can’t win every game. The Flames followed that up with winning hockey games. You can’t teach that.
Someone help our friend Francis Ericsson out. He is looking for a new job.
Things Darryl Sutter and the Scowling Flames Lady do together
They can't text each other because there's a 0% chance either of them has a phone
by ramz (@ramzreboot)
I was inspired by this ScorchStack Tweet:
And subsequently this Tweet:
First, they contact each other by landline phone calls or by letter. Nothing else. But both of those are rare occurrences - they usually just nod at each other through the glass and know exactly what the other one means.
To answer Mr. Scorch’s Tweet, I think they do hang out. But they don’t say anything when they do. Here’s what I think they do when they hang out:
Have breakfast at A&W
If you know, you know. But they only do it at 6:30 a.m., no later.
Sit on a park bench reading the paper
Both scowling.
Bingo Night
Neither of them participates. They sit there with their arms crossed, scowling.
Dinner night
It may seem simple, but they pay solely by cheque. They don’t tip.
Bird watching
Neither of them even like birds.
Go to the theatres
But they strictly go to the Canyon Meadows theatre or the one in Cochrane. Neither of them enjoys movies or knows about any new movies out there. The latest movie they know about was from 1978.
Gardening
Darryl occasionally says “humph” (not derogatory).
Scrapbooking
Neither enjoys anything to do with scrapbooking. Neither have enough photos to even create a scrapbook. Neither enjoys arts and crafts.
Knitting
Do either enjoy knitting? You already know the answer to that.
Sitting in Tim Hortons
At 7 a.m., each of them gets a small black coffee and drink in silence. They pay with exact change.
Playing Scrabble
A small “humph” (not derogatory) comes out of their mouths occasionally.
Jigsaw Puzzles
I don’t have anything to say on this. I love puzzles and I’m jealous of them doing these together.
Hang out on Darryl’s farm
They both just sit and stare out at the farm.
Buy merchandise from BreakingT
Buy merchandise from BreakingT so that we can convince them to make some very cool Scorchstack-designed t-shirts.
Maybe a Backlund Sax t-shirt in the future? Who knows! Buy shirts, support Scorchstack, and maybe we’ll give you a ScorchCoin.
MarinerStack issue #2: Should the Seattle Mariners do steroids?
Many are asking this
by Tibs (@decayinwtheboys)
After a rousing response to MarinerStack #1, baseball content so good that Substack sent it to you twice, we have naturally decided to do MarinerStack #2. This time, asking the tough questions that many of the other Seattle Mariners newsletters inside of Calgary Flames newsletters won’t answer.
The Mariners began the season 2-3. That’s not great, but we can take solace in the fact that it’s been a very on-brand start for the Mariners: two squeaker wins in one-run games, then getting absolutely dummied and leaving the week with a 2-3 record and a -9 run differential.
The problem is fairly obvious: they can’t score runs! We can’t blame them though, it’s not for a lack of trying. Numerous Mariner long bombs went deep into centre field, but all flew into the glove of the Twins’ Byron Buxton. Now they won’t face Golden Glovers every game, but it wouldn’t matter who’s in center if catching the ball wasn’t even in the question.
The solution is simple: they need more power. Now they could go out and acquire more power, or they could bulk up in the gym, but the season’s already started and drastic action needs to be taken. Enter the miracle of modern medicine: steroids. Get ripped quick, hit balls far.
Steroids have a contentious history in baseball: every single record was set with them, but everyone thinks they’re bad for some reason. Let’s break it down and see who’s right.
Pros of doing steroids:
More home runs
Dingers every inning
Big, strong dudes
Wins coming in by the boatload
Demoralized opponents, helplessly looking on as yet another ball flies out of the park
Free souvenirs for the fans
Cons of doing steroids:
Illegal in baseball
Ruins the “purity” of the sport
Long-term health problems
Counter: who needs it when you’re jacked
By a score of 6-2, steroids win this round. This has been another edition of MarinerStack.
Mike Thoughts
What, you thought Mike was just gonna run out of thoughts? Get real.
by Mike (@mikeFAIL)
Seattle Mariners Thoughts
Mariners are good, go Mariners! I watched some highlights the other day and I have to say they are quite impressive based on the two minutes I watched.
Edmonton Media Thoughts
I love this tweet, not because it’s good in any sense or even remotely unique — this is the same schtick Edmonton mainstream media has been producing in the city I, unfortunately, have called home for eons. To be more specific: I moved to Edmonton on December 29th, 2006. As of writing this, it’s 5584 days and counting of the constant state of local media shitting their pants anywhere and everywhere over concepts that my now-deceased father figured out in 20 minutes during a chemo treatment.
At its core, it represents two vital things you need to know about the local Oilers coverage which I think everyone should know already, but they keep making the same mistakes of engaging with them regardless.
First, this provides an opportunity (which admittedly at this rate happens every season) to run another player/coach out of Edmonton into a market that will obviously appreciate them. They laud every chance in front of them be it Taylor Hall, Jeff Petry, Jordan Eberle, Dallas Eakins, whatever the fuck Ryan Strome was, or the gaggle of others who never survived the “Dark Ages” of a perpetual rebuild. Nothing is more lip-smackingly delicious than the act of freeing someone far too talented for this dirt city and pushing them out. Maybe in some sick and perverse sense, the local media titans of industry feel like they’re doing a civil service.
This isn’t me suggesting they should change — no, I long for this to continue because it helps maintain my spiteful belief that nothing is more important to me than seeing this market suffer and collapse under the weight of nincompoopery at every level from the team to the media to the fans. The only thing I wish would change is the constant retread of Hockey Twitter’s incessant “gotcha moments” disproving local Edmonton media. They won’t grasp it this time. They didn’t grasp it when Tyler Dellow made a career out of picking them apart. They won’t grasp it even if you locked them in a basement and forced them to listen to The Hockey PDOcast on repeat for weeks on end. They certainly won’t grasp it if you’re politely explaining a number on a graph to them either. It’s like Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns for the 400th time. I’ve watched this same cycle continue for 15-years and counting.
Nothing will satiate whatever trivial god they worship — some sort of otherworldly entity who was conceived in some Millwoods basement during the ‘80s in a quest to prolong the virility of the dynasty years only to be misshapen and devilish in its continued fostering over the decades. The only thing that will is another player they roast online. Once that player is fed to their god, another will be selected, and the cycle will repeat. Hopefully, it breaks free and feasts upon the goo inside all of our heads so we can free ourselves from this wretched mortal coil.
The second thing is another debate of new media and concepts vs. the lot of hockey writers who’ve done this longer than I’ve existed. Again, this is unfortunate as local Edmonton media can’t help themselves because their brains are so under-developed that possessing a modicum of actual intelligence would require generational evolution, which they’ve staunchly avoided barring colossal concessions. This isn’t a classic scribes vs. math dweebs debate either because I don’t fully believe that someone like Spector, Kurt Leavins, or even the dreadful David Staples possesses the math skills well below junior-high school comprehension. This is purely rooted in “We’ve been doing this longer. We know and have more domain knowledge than you when it comes to hockey. We are paid to make sense of this.” Even if the latter has been perpetually picked apart and proven that they can’t. Imagine that they’ll be like when they learn Darnell Nurse sucks ass.
Two full days of people going after him on Twitter and on other sites; and Spector follows it up with a masterpiece:
They have perfected targeting players and I hope they run him out of Edmonton down the QE2 to Calgary. If there is one guy who will “fix” Jesse Puljujarvi it’s Darryl Sutter. The larger problem is that the province has, well, the Edmonton guys and Calgary has Eric Francis. The brief reprieve of Francis slagging on and finding every opportunity to vehemently believe Johnny Gaudreau is leaving this summer might be nice, but it won’t last.
Hitting 101 points gives Francis more ammunition to shoot wildly into the wild that the Flames might not be able to afford an extension. I say this not to dampen the mood, but it’s all but predictable at this point. He can eat crow on Sportsnet when called out over the “never hitting 99-point plateau again” quote, but that only made him angrier. Here is a collection of patented narratives that can now occur to play off:
Over 100 points in the regular season; disappears in the post-season, which is why the Flames got eliminated. Can the Flames afford to pay for regular season performance at that cap hit?
Could not elevate his already impressive play in the playoffs when the team needs him the most.
Might be able to get away with cutesy moves in the offensive zone, padding his stats, but in the playoffs he needs to play a grittier game (ignoring Sutter’s comments about Gaudreau being a great forechecker this year; which is wild because he rarely did that in years past)
The pressure of the big contract this summer broke him mentally and he couldn’t play at highest level
Was never going to sign in Calgary and finally decided to put on the best performance of his career to get a first-class ticket home back east.
Buckle up kids, we’re entering peak narrative season.
Is it time to be a little concerned about Andrew Mangiapane?
Now that the Flames have a bunch of new shiny toys, let's not be so quick to forget about how good the old ones already were
by Nathan (@hanoten)
With the Flames all but guaranteed of making the playoffs at this point, there has been a lot of talk about fine-tuning the game and not losing momentum during a stretch of games that for all intents and purposes don’t matter, individual accomplishments and beating Edmonton aside.
However, with all the talk lately of the heroics of Trevor Lewis, it would be easy to look over that the Flames have not been firing on all cylinders, with one player specifically in need of a jump start.
Heading into Tuesday night’s game, it had been a hot minute since we saw this photo.
Andrew Mangiapane, the famous Bread Eater and one of Calgary’s 30-goal scorers, has hit quite the wall since essentially the start of March, even with the goal he scored last night, and it’s fair to ask right now if there is a reason for concern heading into the playoffs where he will most certainly be counted on.
Before getting into it, there’s no denying Mangiapane’s breakout season so far. Heading into the game against Seattle, he was sitting at 30 goals and 18 assists after 72 games. He’d also been debatably Calgary’s strongest puck-mover, as he’s the team leader among regulars (hello to Ryan Carpenter) in CF% at even strength, which as we know isn’t the be-all or end-all when it comes to possession, but leading the team is undeniably impressive. It should come as no surprise that he’s also Top 3 in xGF% among regulars (again, hello to Ryan Carpenter), behind Matthew Tkachuk and bizarrely enough Brett Ritchie.
Not only that, but basically everyone Mangiapane has played with this season has looked better beside him. Taking a quick look at the data as compiled by Evolving Hockey (which you too could benefit from for only $5 a month), it’s not hard to see that Mangiapane is a player who makes those around him better.
With all that being said, what’s the cause for concern? Well, the headline is that Mangiapane had just a single snipe since March 3rd, tallying the second goal in the 6-3 win over New Jersey back on March 16. During that time, his shooting percentage has predictably tanked, going from 21.8% before March 3 to just 3.2% since then. He managed to get one last night, but it’s not really enough to pretend that this blip is magically over.
However, it’s not just a regression to the average at play here. He’s shooting much less during this stretch (nearly a shot less per game going from an average of 2.5 shots per game to just 1.63). Obviously, he wasn’t going to continue ripping the puck at 22% going forward as a career shooter of 15.8%, just as he will eventually buck this poor stretch, but it was extremely encouraging to see Mangiapane shooting the puck more this season. Regardless of percentages, putting more rubber on the net always gives you better odds. Just ask Alexander Ovechkin.
So what gives? Well, it predates the slump, but I think that the introduction of Tyler Toffoli has been a bit of an adjustment for Mangiapane. Right now, the Flames’ second line has been in a constant state of flux as Darryl Sutter tries to unlock another perfect combo behind the top line, but the line of Mangiapane-Mikael Backlund-Toffoli has been used more often than not to…..not underwhelming results but clearly not what the team has been hoping for. In just over 83 minutes together at 5v5, that trio has scored three times and allowed two. Their xGF% is below 50% which as we all know automatically means bad, although you would hope for more for a group that has started their shifts together more in the offensive zone more often than not. For all the excitement of having the most skilled pieces in the lineup in years, finding what has worked with them hasn’t been as instant as one would hope. Not that this has necessarily cost the team, but with just nine games to go, this is the time to find out what works.
Which, speaking of what works, it might be time to reunite Mangiapane and Backlund with Blake Coleman, who himself has been all kinds of snakebitten this year but together the three formed a fantastic second line. (ed. note: I wrote this on Monday night before Mangiapane got promoted to the top line with Lindholm and Gaudreau, but it still makes a good enough point to keep in) Coleman provides both a more familiar feel and a more rounded presence to complement Backlund, whereas Toffoli and Mangiapane together at times feels like a murky situation of who is going to take the reins and lead the scoring threat.
Granted, that leaves Toffoli on a line with Calle Järnkrok and most likely Dillon Dubé, which has shown not great chemistry off the hop, although it should be said that Järnkrok’s arrival in Calgary has not been smooth in regards to actually playing games and Dubé continues to pull off his best Sam Bennett impression as he now is afflicted with whatever witch’s curse affected Bennett. However, it’s easy to argue at this time that giving those three a long runway to figure it out before the playoffs while also relying on the dynamite of Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman is the clearer option over mixing and matching the middle six and not getting much of anything.
For Mangiapane, it could restore that confidence earlier this year, and place him back in a position to succeed as the scoring threat on his line. Toffoli, as per Sutter, will score just about anywhere he’s put, so the idea of having him carve a niche on the third line while also plying his trade on the top powerplay also feels like a good enough use of him.
Mangiapane has done more than enough this season to cement himself as a big part of this team and to earn a huge payday this season, even as an RFA. However, with both he and the team likely looking ahead to the bigger picture of the postseason, it might behoove Sutter and co. to put him back in a familiar position and see if they can’t get him back to doing what he does best.
Data in this piece was used from both Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Christian's Conspiracy Corner: Are the Flames intentionally tanking Andrew Mangiapane's results so they have to pay him less?
Thank you to Nathan for inspiring the latest Scorchstack recurring column that will never appear in this space again
by Tibs (@decayinwtheboys)
Question: What do the Calgary Flames and Canadian supermarket giant Loblaws have in common?
Answer: they are both guilty of fixing bread prices.
Scorchstack is a respected journalism institution, as you can see through our many scoops that we’ve broken. We’ve broken so many that I can’t even remember them all, guess you have to read all of our archives to see journalism in action.
But this might be our biggest scoop yet: the Flames may be intentionally slowing down Andrew Mangiapane in order to better position themselves at the negotiating table.
If you read Nathan’s article above, you could see that Mangiapane is not quite the player he was earlier in the season. The goals aren’t being scored, the shots aren’t being, uh, shot, and the point totals have dipped, subsequently dropping Mangiapane from being the fourth first liner to being a middle-six body.
But what if instead of this being the natural course of an absurd shooting percentage coming down to Earth, this is an intentional plot to suppress Mangiapane’s scoring, one such plot concocted and executed… by your Calgary Flames?
Being a middle-six body is a fine thing to be, but it’s not the player on the verge of a true breakthrough that Mangiapane was earlier in the season. That all works out a little too conveniently for a team that has a number of expiring contracts. They either have to move out ~$11M in deadweight or find ways to shave off dollars from pricey free agents. One of those options is more realistic, and with shrewd negotiation Brad Treliving at the helm, he’s going to find places where he can pinch pennies and keep the salary cap down.
I can report as this time that they’ve found their target: Andrew Mangiapane. And we have the proof.
Nathan began his piece with a Sopranos reference, so I feel I should too. If only there was one that summed up the anti-Italian discrimination on display here.
Hmmmm. Nope, don’t think this is the one. I’ll keep looking.
The problem: Andrew Mangiapane lies in some weird space where he is too good to simply be “good” but not good enough to be “elite.” He will put up some bonkers numbers, both conventional and underlying, but nothing that really puts him in that exclusive tier where the entire league takes notice. Speaking purely from the eye test, he is evidently a skilled player with the approach to the game where nothing is taken for granted and everything is earned, but he doesn’t have that famous, undefinable “it” that he can switch on in a moment’s notice and turn the tide of a game. He’s an absolute positive force, but not a game-breaking talent that breathes life into the team.
This paradox extends into his contract negotiations: Mangiapane is not valuable enough to get paid like the rest of the stars do, but he’s also absolutely indispensable to your team. A reasonable 6x6 contract would get folks hemming and hawing about whether he can live up to the expectations of that deal but shipping him off for futures so you can save a few bucks while allocating money to higher priority players is arguably more offensive. Every team needs an Andrew Mangiapane, but they need him at exactly the point where he is outproducing his salary by two or three times what it implies.
The solution: Tank Andrew Mangiapane’s production to the point where he can no longer seriously argue for the big bucks his gawdy goalscoring totals usually command, thus keeping him at a point low enough where the money is reasonable but he will always outperform it.
Step 1: Acquire Tyler Toffoli to steal the spotlight from Andrew Mangiapane
The Toffoli acquisition, on the surface, was a perfect move for the Flames. Not only did it give them another upper-tier forward to help take the scoring pressure off the first line, but his contract is also extremely team-friendly.
In all the excitement of our Flames finally securing a good player, the team hoped you would never notice the dark underside of acquiring Tyler Toffoli: to slow down Andrew Mangiapane.
Ridiculous? No. Since Toffoli became a Flame, Mangiapane only has 18 points in 28 games. Decent, but not the 31 in 45 he put up prior to the trade. Much more importantly, his goal scoring has dropped from 24 in 45 to seven in 28. Toffoli, on the other hand, has scored eleven goals in those 28 games. The goals are still being scored, it’s just that someone else - with a set salary that isn’t up for renegotiation this year - is scoring them.
The explanation is simple: if you have one goalscorer, he will get the puck more often. He’s the one guy who can score goals, why not pass to him? But with two goal scorers, the setups are cut in half and evenly distributed.
The knock-on effect is staggering. The PP1 spot that many wanted Mangiapane to have? Now Tyler Toffoli’s. The second line minutes Mangiapane held onto for the better part of two seasons? Yup, Tyler Toffoli gets a piece. Even on the penalty kill, where Mangiapane’s excellent forechecking created plenty of trouble? Guess who is also now on that unit.
Step 2: Jumble the lines, never get Mangiapane comfortable again
Central to any good conspiracy is chaos. In all the mess and confusion, no one will notice the underhanded moves.
With everyone distracted by Tyler Toffoli goals, no one seems to notice that Mangiapane is bouncing around the lineup. No longer linked at the hip to Mikael Backlund, Mangiapane gets to float around. Enter more agents of chaos, namely Adam Ružička (also famously Italian like Toffoli and Mangiapane- a trick used by Brad Treliving to make Mangiapane feel at home) and Calle Järnkrok to only sort of provide the stability only Backlund could bring.
Perhaps the conspiracy runs deeper, but we can only speculate here. Is Dillon Dubé’s famous non-goal scoring ways part of the conspiracy to take points away? How about Blake Coleman, who has also gone conveniently quiet? You can’t explain Trevor Lewis being on the second line for those few games as anything other than an attempt to sewer Mangiapane, one so naked and brazen that most people were upset even if they couldn’t make this connection.
Without a stable place where he can build chemistry and score those goals again, Mangiapane’s value trickles down just a few bucks more with every passing game.
Step 3 (maybe): Get the NHLers out of the Olympics and thus keep Andrew Mangiapane more low profile
Okay, hear me out on this one.
Andrew Mangiapane was the surest thing from a lock on Team Canada’s roster, but with his increased goal-scoring, he could’ve been a contender for a spot.
International competitions do funny things to our minds. Paul Henderson, a middling player from the 70s, gets to be an iconic player of the game because he scored a crucial goal in the 1972 Summit Series. The Miracle on Ice team gets to hang around forever despite no one knowing a single player who played on that team or even if the USA won the gold against the USSR in that game (they didn’t, despite common belief). We all have to pretend to miss the 2016 World Cup of Hockey even if it was a last-minute cash grab by the NHL.
Editor’s note: The Spengler Cup is different for obvious reasons
Knowing that Mangiapane could profit from just being an Olympian presented a problem to the Flames. His MVP performance at the World Championships last May started turning heads despite it being the most participation trophy-ass international hockey event. If he turned in a repeat performance on a bigger stage? Well, then surely no one could deny him.
But the Flames knew the NHL hates the Olympics screwing up the schedule and generating TV revenue for people who are not the NHL. If a potential large delay closely timed to the Olympics could convince the public that NHL player participation was a bad idea and make the entire NHL schedule unworkable, you could nip this entire thing in the bud.
Say, didn’t a certain hockey team have a big COVID outbreak two months before the Olympics, causing a large number of rescheduled games and thus making the idea unfeasible?
A certain hockey team called the Calgary Flames?
A good conspiracy theorist knows when they’ve stumbled onto something, and when they’re just throwing spaghetti against the wall. This is the latter, but it’s just something to consider.
Step 4: After stealing his goals, use Toffoli as a measuring stick in negotiations
Toffoli also serves another purpose: like Mangiapane, he has spent most of his career in that no man’s land between good and elite.
However, instead of cashing in and arguing for beaucoup bucks, he took reasonable contract after reasonable contract, keeping him in that sweet zone where he will always overperform his salary expectations and never be overpaid for his services. A player who always threatens to score twenty goals and fifty points every season at $4.25M? That’s a steal.
It’s also a precedent, however. Let’s flash forward to the negotiation table. Mangiapane wants his money as a young goal-scorer: he’s scored thirty goals and ascended to being an all-situations threat. Even though he’s RFA, the Flames should reward
The Flames counter: first, the declining second-half numbers. The goalscoring declined, we can’t pay all that money for smoke and mirrors (they won’t bring up that this crisis was facilitated by the Calgary Flames in the first place)! We recognize the talent, but you’re not that talented.
The second part of the attack? Tyler Toffoli. Look at this kid, he took $4.25M on the open market as a UFA and he’s practically the same guy as you! In fact, he has won cups and gone on multiple deep playoff runs, so he’s without a doubt the better player. Why should we pay you more than him when he’s more accomplished and willing to take less?
After two devastating blows, the Flames have Mangiapane on the ropes. They’ll be generous: how about a reasonable $4M for about four years? Bruised and battered, not entirely sure he can bet on himself while living in the shadow of Tyler Toffoli, he accepts. The Flames get their man at the price they want him at.
Conclusion: I submit to you that what’s taking place this season is a negotiation coup d'état. Its most direct and tragic result was a reversal of Mangiapane’s goal-scoring numbers. Mangiapane was dragged down by a conspiracy that was planned in advance at the highest levels of our front office and it was carried out by fanatical and disciplined cold warriors standing behind the players on the bench. Among them, Darryl. It is a public execution and it is being covered up by like-minded individuals in NHL front offices, the NHLPA, the league office, and Hockey Canada- all the way up to and including the commissioner and Bill Daly, whom I consider accomplices after the fact. No, I did not steal this from JFK, you can’t prove that I did.
Update: Andrew Mangiapane has coincidentally been moved to the top line alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm mere hours before this piece was set to become public. They knew we were getting close, and are clearly attempting to appease us so we back off the exposé. Nice try. Scorchstack has a nice little thing called journalistic integrity and will have it first, rest assured.
Up Next Week
Connor Mackey is likely in the AHL again. Boy, I would regret thinking he’s staying in the NHL after the emergency call-up is over.
We check in on Theo Fleury and see how his brain is doing.
Matthew Tkachuk: 100-points? Yeah, we’re calling it.